Trend report · May 19, 2026 – Aug 17, 2026
GrailGauge Market Report
90-Day Trend Analysis: May 19 – August 17, 2026
Retrospective analysis of 8,079 cards priced ≥ $5, May 19, 2026 – Aug 17, 2026. Medians, not means; thin-market and suspect data excluded. Descriptive only — nothing here predicts prices, and none of it is financial advice.
No. 1
TL;DR — the period in one glance
- 01The EX / DPP era posted the strongest 90-day median across all era cohorts, while Chaos Rising and Perfect Order were the hardest-hit sets in the universe.
- 02Holo rares and commons-through-non-holo rares moved in lockstep at the top of the rarity table, while illustration rares and alt arts lagged the field on both 30- and 90-day windows.
No. 2 · Breadth
How broad was the move
4,493
Up (90d) · 74%
715
Flat · 12%
895
Down (90d) · 15%
No. 3 · Eras
Era report card
TL;DROlder cards dominated this period: every era from Sun & Moon back posted double-digit 90-day median gains, while Sword & Shield and Scarlet & Violet trailed, and Mega Evolution was the lone cohort with a negative 90-day median.
| Era | Cards | 30d med. | 90d med. | 1y med. | % up (90d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EX / DPP era | 2931 | +0.7% | +19.6% | +127.8% | 80% |
| e-Card | 500 | 0.0% | +15.1% | +102.3% | 70% |
| Other | 215 | 0.0% | +13.1% | +105.8% | 62% |
| Vintage (WotC) | 681 | +2.7% | +12.9% | +54.6% | 79% |
| BW / XY era | 1148 | +1.8% | +12.2% | +52.9% | 75% |
| Sun & Moon | 977 | +2.4% | +12.2% | +41.4% | 85% |
| Sword & Shield | 704 | -1.1% | +6.3% | +57.2% | 64% |
| Scarlet & Violet | 769 | -5.0% | +5.2% | +60.4% | 56% |
| Mega Evolution | 154 | -7.8% | -18.8% | — | 10% |
The EX / DPP era led all cohorts with a 90-day median of 19.6% and 80% of its 2,931 cards up over that window — the widest breadth of any era this period.
Sun & Moon had the highest shareUp90 in the universe at 85%, even though its 90-day median of 12.2% matched BW / XY era exactly — suggesting gains were unusually broad rather than concentrated in a handful of cards.
Mega Evolution's 90-day median of -18.8% and shareUp90 of just 10% mark it as a sharp outlier; its 30-day median of -7.8% indicates the decline continued into the most recent month.
No. 4 · Rarity
What kind of cards moved
TL;DRHolo rares and commons-through-non-holo rares led every other rarity tier over 90 days, while illustration rares and alt arts were the only rarity cohort to sit below 10% on both the 30- and 90-day medians.
| Rarity class | Cards | 30d med. | 90d med. | 1y med. | % up (90d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holo rares | 1005 | +2.0% | +16.1% | +97.3% | 77% |
| Commons through non-holo rares | 5036 | +1.3% | +14.8% | +92.1% | 77% |
| Ultra rares (ex/GX/V family) | 587 | +0.7% | +12.5% | +71.2% | 74% |
| Stars, Shinings & shinies | 208 | -1.6% | +8.5% | +82.7% | 66% |
| Secret / hyper / gold | 606 | +0.8% | +8.3% | +34.4% | 71% |
| Illustration rares & alt arts | 637 | -5.4% | +3.6% | +65.0% | 52% |
Holo rares and commons-through-non-holo rares both landed at 77% shareUp90 with 90-day medians of 16.1% and 14.8% respectively — effectively moving as a unit and suggesting broad, format-agnostic interest in these tiers.
Stars, Shinings & shinies posted a 90-day median of 8.5% but their 30-day median slipped to -1.6%, a divergence worth noting for collectors tracking whether the longer-run strength has begun to cool.
Illustration rares & alt arts had the lowest shareUp90 in the rarity table at 52% and a 30-day median of -5.4%, making them the rarity cohort with the most pronounced short-term softness.
No. 5 · Sets
Set spotlight
TL;DRExpedition Base Set was the standout positive set over 90 days — every tracked card in the set rose — while Chaos Rising and Perfect Order sat at the opposite extreme with zero cards up and deep median losses.
| Set | Cards | 30d med. | 90d med. | 1y med. | % up (90d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising | 13 | -7.8% | -76.8% | — | 0% |
| Expedition Base Set | 151 | -10.4% | +49.6% | +171.8% | 100% |
| POP Series 6 | 16 | +5.1% | +40.5% | +254.0% | 77% |
| POP Series 1 | 14 | +2.1% | +36.6% | +173.9% | 67% |
| Black Bolt | 78 | -6.1% | +33.6% | +73.7% | 96% |
| Perfect Order | 16 | -5.2% | -33.2% | — | 0% |
| Neo Revelation | 39 | +5.6% | +32.5% | +60.3% | 88% |
| Crystal Guardians | 91 | +6.9% | +31.8% | +193.9% | 87% |
Expedition Base Set's 100% shareUp90 and 90-day median of 49.6% are the most uniform broad-set gains in this table; its 365-day median of 171.8% shows that strength predates this reporting window by a wide margin.
Chaos Rising and Perfect Order both recorded 0% shareUp90 and are the only sets in this table with null 365-day data, consistent with them being recently introduced products whose early price discovery moved sharply against initial levels.
No. 6 · Movers
Sustained risers (90 days)
TL;DRThe top risers were dominated by EX / DPP and e-Card singles, led by Rayquaza from Call of Legends at +567.1%, while Chaos Rising cards swept the decliner list.
- 1RayquazaCall of Legends · EX / DPP era$101.83 → $679.27+567.1%
- 2EspeonMajestic Dawn · EX / DPP era$18.22 → $100.00+448.8%
- 3Team Aqua's SharpedoTeam Magma vs Team Aqua · EX / DPP era$10.00 → $48.99+389.9%
- 4Team Magma's HoundourTeam Magma vs Team Aqua · EX / DPP era$12.58 → $59.99+376.9%
- 5Rayquaza exDeoxys · EX / DPP era$210.28 → $999.00+375.1%
- 6BreloomDeoxys · EX / DPP era$24.94 → $104.98+320.9%
- 7AzumarillAquapolis · e-Card$24.11 → $99.99+314.7%
- 8ArticunoLegendary Collection · Other$184.51 → $749.99+306.5%
- 9HoothootSkyridge · e-Card$24.90 → $99.49+299.6%
- 10StarmieSkyridge · e-Card$147.79 → $575.75+289.6%
No. 7 · Movers
Sustained decliners (90 days)
- 1FroakieChaos Rising · Mega Evolution$54.98 → $10.18-81.5%
- 2AZ's TranquilityChaos Rising · Mega Evolution$124.99 → $29.05-76.8%
- 3Mega Dragalge exChaos Rising · Mega Evolution$115.00 → $40.06-65.2%
- 4SolrockDeoxys · EX / DPP era$45.00 → $15.93-64.6%
- 5ExeggcuteAquapolis · e-Card$91.41 → $35.64-61.0%
- 6EnteiAquapolis · e-Card$351.99 → $144.99-58.8%
- 7Kyogre & Groudon LEGENDHS—Undaunted · EX / DPP era$499.00 → $208.93-58.1%
- 8EnteiPaldean Fates · Scarlet & Violet$28.20 → $12.32-56.3%
- 9SpoinkEmerald · EX / DPP era$79.99 → $35.32-55.8%
- 10Rocket's Suicune exTeam Rocket Returns · EX / DPP era$649.99 → $300.00-53.8%
Rayquaza from Call of Legends (+567.1%), Rayquaza ex from Deoxys (+375.1%), and Breloom from Deoxys (+320.9%) show that multiple cards within the EX / DPP era reached triple- or higher-digit 90-day gains — a pattern consistent with renewed collector focus on that era's back catalog rather than a single card event.
On the Skyridge side, both Hoothoot (+299.6%) and Starmie (+289.6%) appeared in the top-ten risers alongside Azumarill from Aquapolis (+314.7%), reinforcing the e-Card cohort's broad 90-day strength seen in the era table.
The three deepest decliners — Froakie (-81.5%), AZ's Tranquility (-76.8%), and Mega Dragalge ex (-65.2%) — all came from Chaos Rising, which also anchors the set cohort's -76.8% median and 0% shareUp90; Kyogre & Groudon LEGEND from HS—Undaunted (-58.1%) was the most notable non-Mega Evolution decliner.
No. 8 · Pattern watch
Worth keeping an eye on
⌁The EX / DPP era's 90-day median of 19.6% sits alongside a 365-day median of 127.8%, while its 30-day median has compressed to 0.7% — the gap between long-run and very short-run figures is the widest of any era cohort this period.
⌁Illustration rares & alt arts show a split: a 365-day median of 65.0% but a 90-day median of only 3.6% and a 30-day median of -5.4% — the longest and shortest windows point in opposite directions for this cohort.
⌁Sword & Shield and Scarlet & Violet both posted positive 90-day medians (6.3% and 5.2%) alongside negative 30-day medians (-1.1% and -5.0%), a divergence consistent with gains concentrated in the earlier part of the 90-day window.
⌁Aquapolis produced both a top-ten riser (Azumarill, +314.7%) and two top-ten decliners (Exeggcute, -61.0%; Entei, -58.8%) within the same 90-day window — unusually wide intra-set dispersion for a single older set.
⌁Crystal Guardians posted a 90-day median of 31.8% with 87% shareUp90 and a 365-day median of 193.9%, while its 30-day median has pulled back to 6.9% — shorter-window deceleration against a very strong longer backdrop.
Patterns describe the past. They are not predictions, and markets owe them nothing.
Methodology
All figures use median sale prices, not means, to limit distortion from outlier transactions. Cards with fewer than a minimum number of recent sales (thin-market) and any listings flagged as suspect (damaged, tampered, or anomalous) are excluded from the universe entirely. Only cards whose current median sits at $5 or above are included. Percentage changes are calculated by anchoring to the reference-date median (90, 30, or 365 days prior to August 17, 2026) and comparing it to the August 17 median; no figures have been derived, annualized, or extrapolated by the editorial team — all numbers are quoted directly from the pre-computed data tables.
Prices are TCGplayer market values via official data APIs. Informational only — not financial advice.