GrailGauge Trend Report

Every era from Sword & Shield backward recorded a positive 90-day median, with EX / DPP era leading at 15.8% and three-quarters of its cards finishing higher than they started.

Scarlet & Violet was the only modern era to close with a negative 90-day median (-3%), and barely more than a third of its cards were up over that window — a stark contrast to the 80% shareUp90 recorded by Sun & Moon.

The Mega Evolution cohort stood apart from all others: a -25% 90-day median and only 5% of cards up over 90 days, a breadth reading consistent with a cohort under sustained selling pressure rather than selective weakness.

Ultra rares and secret/hyper/gold cards both gained over 90 days but trailed the simpler rarity tiers by a meaningful margin, with secrets posting the smallest positive median of the gaining cohorts at 5.3%.

Illustration rares & alt arts were the weakest rarity cohort: a -4.7% 90-day median and only 35% of cards up, a reading that coincides with the broader softness seen in the Scarlet & Violet era where much of that supply is concentrated.

Neo Discovery and Neo Revelation led the gaining sets at 25.7% and 25.5% respectively, with shareUp90 figures of 86% and 88% — meaning the gains were broadly distributed rather than driven by one or two outlier cards.

Legend Maker matched those gains at 25% with an equally strong 86% shareUp90, and its one-year median of 216.5% was the highest of any set featured in the table, suggesting the 90-day move arrived on top of already substantial appreciation.

Chaos Rising, Perfect Order, and Ascended Heroes each recorded 0% shareUp90 — not a single tracked card in any of those sets finished the 90-day window higher — with Chaos Rising's median reaching -47.2%.

The single largest 90-day move in the universe belonged to Rayquaza from Call of Legends, which gained 891.3% over the period — a move so large relative to peers that it warrants treating as an isolated liquidity event rather than a signal for the set broadly, even though Call of Legends itself was a top-gaining set.

On the decline side, Shining Charizard from Neo Destiny shed 62.6% over 90 days from a prior price near $3,999 to $1,495 — a reversal that coincides with the broader pattern of high-profile vintage chase cards cooling after peak sales, consistent with the Stars, Shinings & shinies cohort's near-flat 90-day median.

Several EX / DPP era cards appeared on both sides of the ledger simultaneously — Team Magma's Houndour and Team Aqua's Kyogre among the top risers, while Piplup, Numel, and Kirlia δ ranked among the steepest decliners — underscoring that the era's strong cohort median masked meaningful dispersion at the individual card level.

⌁The Mega Evolution cohort's 90-day median of -25% with only 5% of cards up stands in contrast to every other era cohort, which recorded positive or near-flat 90-day medians — a divergence worth tracking across future windows.

⌁Commons-through-non-holo rares outpaced ultra rares and secret rares over 90 days, a reversal of the typical assumption that higher-rarity cards lead market moves — the gap between the two cohorts' 90-day medians was roughly four percentage points.

⌁Chaos Rising, Perfect Order, and Ascended Heroes each had 0% shareUp90 with no 365-day baseline available, consistent with these being newly released sets whose initial market prices have compressed since launch.

⌁POP Series 2's 90-day median of 23.6% arrived on top of a one-year median of 205.7%, making it one of the few small promotional sets sustaining appreciation across multiple time horizons in the data.

Patterns describe the past. They are not predictions, and markets owe them nothing.