Trend report · Jul 3, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026

GrailGauge Trend Report

Period: 2026-07-03 → 2026-10-01

Retrospective analysis of 8,217 cards priced ≥ $5, Jul 3, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026. Medians, not means; thin-market and suspect data excluded. Descriptive only — nothing here predicts prices, and none of it is financial advice.

No. 1

TL;DR — the period in one glance

  1. 01Older cards continued to climb sharply over the 90-day window while the newest era material fell hard — the market's appetite was squarely in the past, not the present.
  2. 02Illustration rares and alt arts posted the steepest rarity-level decline on both the 30- and 90-day horizons, while everyday holo rares were the standout performers across all timeframes.

No. 2 · Breadth

How broad was the move

3,794

Up (90d) · 60%

957

Flat · 15%

1,581

Down (90d) · 25%

No. 3 · Eras

Era report card

TL;DREX / DPP era cards led every other era over 90 days, while Mega Evolution cards were the only cohort with negative returns across all three time windows.

EraCards30d med.90d med.1y med.% up (90d)
EX / DPP era2941+1.3%+14.7%+133.1%73%
Vintage (WotC)690+2.1%+9.2%+59.9%74%
e-Card4900.0%+8.3%+110.9%63%
Other215+2.5%+7.2%+109.1%58%
Sun & Moon1006+2.0%+7.0%+35.9%71%
BW / XY era1186+2.0%+6.9%+44.8%68%
Sword & Shield713-1.9%-3.3%+25.8%29%
Scarlet & Violet779-4.5%-11.6%+39.9%13%
Mega Evolution197-15.9%-29.9%-59.6%2%

The EX / DPP era cohort — the universe's largest at nearly 3,000 cards — had 73% of its cards up over 90 days, a breadth reading consistent with broad, durable demand rather than a handful of outliers pulling the median.

Scarlet & Violet's 90-day median sat deeply negative with only 13% of cards up over that span, the weakest shareUp90 of any living era — a sharp contrast to its still-positive 365-day figure, suggesting recent pressure on cards that had previously appreciated.

Mega Evolution's median365 of -59.6% marks it as the only era cohort underwater on the full-year look, and its shareUp90 of just 2% means declines were nearly universal across the period.

No. 4 · Rarity

What kind of cards moved

TL;DRHolo rares outperformed every other rarity tier over both 90 days and the full year, while illustration rares and alt arts were the weakest cohort at every time horizon.

Rarity classCards30d med.90d med.1y med.% up (90d)
Holo rares988+1.9%+13.0%+97.8%73%
Commons through non-holo rares5162+1.2%+9.3%+93.8%68%
Ultra rares (ex/GX/V family)596+0.7%+5.0%+57.5%57%
Secret / hyper / gold615+0.5%+2.9%+27.3%52%
Stars, Shinings & shinies207+0.7%-0.2%+55.8%42%
Illustration rares & alt arts649-5.9%-14.4%+44.5%10%

Commons through non-holo rares — the universe's largest rarity bucket — tracked almost as strongly as holo rares over 90 days, which is consistent with broad vintage and mid-era set demand lifting even lower-profile cards.

Stars, Shinings & shinies showed a near-flat 90-day median despite a strong 365-day figure, suggesting that the group's longer-run gains paused or consolidated over this specific quarter.

Illustration rares and alt arts' 90-day median of -14.4% with only 10% of cards up represents the sharpest rarity-level retreat in the period, a reading that coincides with the broader weakness recorded across Scarlet & Violet era material.

No. 5 · Sets

Set spotlight

TL;DRHS—Triumphant and Neo Revelation were the period's strongest set-level performers, while Perfect Order, Ascended Heroes, and other recent sets posted the steepest declines.

SetCards30d med.90d med.1y med.% up (90d)
Perfect Order12-18.0%-34.2%—0%
Ascended Heroes56-13.3%-32.5%—0%
Phantasmal Flames12-17.8%-29.0%—0%
Destined Rivals36-11.1%-27.0%-36.6%3%
HS—Triumphant72+4.3%+24.5%+152.2%87%
Journey Together15-12.1%-24.1%-28.9%0%
Neo Revelation41+2.7%+22.6%+71.0%94%
Black & White16+5.4%+20.9%-2.4%75%

Neo Revelation had 94% of its tracked cards up over 90 days — the highest shareUp90 of any set in the spotlight — and its 365-day median of 71% shows the current run sits on top of an already substantial prior advance.

HS—Triumphant's 87% shareUp90 and 152.2% one-year median make it the most consistently appreciated set in the table; the 90-day gain arrived on a very high base, which distinguishes it from sets recovering off lows.

Perfect Order and Ascended Heroes each had 0% of cards up over 90 days with no available 365-day figure, indicating these are recent releases whose post-launch prices fell throughout the entire tracked window.

No. 6 · Movers

Sustained risers (90 days)

No. 7 · Movers

Sustained decliners (90 days)

  1. 1TyranitarAquapolis · e-Card$500.00 → $198.86-60.2%
  2. 2Kirlia δDragon Frontiers · EX / DPP era$85.00 → $35.33-58.4%
  3. 3Shining CharizardNeo Destiny · Vintage (WotC)$3,999 → $1,701-57.5%
  4. 4Rocket's Snorlax exTeam Rocket Returns · EX / DPP era$900.00 → $400.00-55.6%
  5. 5Roserade CSupreme Victors · EX / DPP era$24.99 → $11.69-53.2%
  6. 6ScottEmerald · EX / DPP era$42.50 → $20.20-52.5%
  7. 7MachopLegend Maker · EX / DPP era$48.14 → $23.57-51.0%
  8. 8Mega Dragalge exChaos Rising · Mega Evolution$49.61 → $24.69-50.2%
  9. 9Erika's TangelaAscended Heroes · Mega Evolution$24.55 → $12.76-48.0%
  10. 10EmolgaBlack Bolt · Scarlet & Violet$21.46 → $11.16-48.0%

Rayquaza from Call of Legends and Rayquaza ex from Deoxys both appeared near the top of the riser list, with the former moving from $104.42 to $1,013.27 — a pattern consistent with concentrated collector demand for specific high-profile cards within an already-hot era cohort.

Shining Charizard from Neo Destiny recorded the largest absolute dollar decline in the table, dropping from $3,998.99 to $1,700.99 over 90 days — notable because even at the lower price it remains among the most expensive single cards tracked this period.

Three of the ten decliners — Erika's Tangela from Ascended Heroes, Mega Dragalge ex from Chaos Rising, and Emolga from Black Bolt — represent newer Mega Evolution and Scarlet & Violet era releases, consistent with the broad era-level weakness recorded for both cohorts.

No. 8 · Pattern watch

Worth keeping an eye on

⌁The EX / DPP era cohort's 90-day median of 14.7% arrives on top of a 365-day median of 133.1% — worth watching whether the shorter-window pace continues to compound on an already-elevated base or begins to moderate in future periods.

⌁The e-Card cohort's 30-day median was flat at 0% while its 90-day median remained positive at 8.3%, a divergence that may reflect recent stalling after a stronger earlier move within the quarter.

⌁Stars, Shinings & shinies posted a negative 90-day median (-0.2%) while carrying a strongly positive 365-day median (55.8%) — this split between short- and long-horizon performance was the most pronounced among all rarity cohorts.

⌁Black & White base set showed a positive 90-day median of 20.9% yet its 365-day median sits at -2.4%, meaning recent gains have not yet recovered the full-year loss — an unusual reversal pattern relative to other sets in the spotlight.

Patterns describe the past. They are not predictions, and markets owe them nothing.

Methodology

All price figures are medians, not means, to limit distortion from high-value outliers. Cards priced below $5 at either endpoint are excluded, as are cards flagged for thin market activity or suspect sale data (e.g., single-transaction windows, anomalous outlier prints). Percentage changes are calculated from a fixed reference date at the start of each window to the data-as-of date of 2026-10-01; no annualization or extrapolation is applied. The universe of 8,217 cards reflects only those passing all filters at both endpoints of the relevant window.

Prices are TCGplayer market values via official data APIs. Informational only — not financial advice.